4th International Forum on Long-term Scenarios for the Clean Energy Transition

Registration and morning coffee

Welcome remarks:

• Asami Miketa, Senior Programme Officer Power Sector Investment Planning, Innovation and Technology Centre, IRENA
• Christian Stenberg, Deputy Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities, Denmark
• Jan Weidner, Policy Officer, Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, Germany
• Melisande Liu, Partnerships Manager, Clean Energy Ministerial

Housekeeping announcements by MC: Angela Khanali Mutsotso, Associate Professional – Clean Energy Transition Scenarios

IRENA presentation on LTES Network

• Juan Jose Garcia, Programme Officer, IRENA

Session 1: Aligning Long-Term Energy Scenarios (LTES) with Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) to strengthen climate action

Moderator: Simon Benmarraze, Analyst, Technology and Infrastructure, IRENA

Planning for the energy transition requires strong coordination between energy and climate institutions to align policies and create shared development strategies. At the recommendation of the Paris Agreement, 57 countries have submitted Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) to outline their pathways to decarbonize by mid-century. Around 70% of LT-LEDS are using scenarios as the basis for their analysis.

The session aimed to highlight the importance of coordination between the LTES and LT-LEDS and the challenges and lessons learned for effective coordination. To this end, the session explored how LTES are aligned with LT-LEDS, focusing on governance, institutional coordination, and technical coverage. It also discussed the current and future challenges to strengthen this alignment.

The specific guiding questions for this session include:

• What efforts are being made to align LTES with global net-zero targets? What are the main challenges to doing so? (e.g., alignment with the 2050 horizon, the inclusion of negative emission technologies, etc.)
• What is the benefit of using scenario-based LT-LEDS?
• What levels of coordination are required to efficiently link LTES with LT-LEDS?
• How can the use of LTES facilitate inter-ministerial coordination for developing LT-LEDS?
• What are the key challenges for integrating the use of LTES in the development of LT-LEDS, in terms of governance, institutional arrangements, and scenario development and coverage?

LT-LEDS synthesis report (20 min):

• Presentation: Kenichi Kitamura, Associate Program Officer, NDC, LT-LEDS and Sectorial Support unit, Mitigation Division, UNFCCC
• Discussant: Ploypailin Sundarajumpaka, Country Engagement Specialist, NDC Partnership

LTES and LT-LEDS alignment (20 min):

• Presentation: Nadeem Goussous, Associate Program Officer - Clean Energy Transition Scenarios, IRENA
• Discussant: Henri Waisman, Coordinator Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project, IDDRI

Country example (20 min):

• Presentation: Malene Hovgaard Vested, Advisor, Centre for Systems Analysis, Danish Energy Agency
• Discussant: Paul Deane, Senior Research Fellow, Environmental Research Institute’s MaREI Centre University College Cork

Panel discussion (30 min)

Interventions from country delegates and the floor audience (20 min)

Lunch

Session 2: Demand-side assessments in Long-Term Energy Scenarios

Moderator: Derck Koolen, Team Leader, European Commission Joint Research Centre

Digitalisation-driven behavioural change, technological innovations, and cheaper renewable power bring new dimensions to the way that energy is consumed. That includes not just the level and pattern of demand, but also the way demand-side features can take an active role in the energy transition.

This session aimed to address the different approaches, methodologies, and key drivers for representing demand-side features of the energy transition in LTES. The following discussion focused on how countries are currently assessing future demand in scenarios and how this exercise can be beneficial for policymaking.

The specific guiding questions for this session include:

• What are the key drivers of demand in the context of the energy transition that you are considering for LTES?
• How is behavioral change being considered within energy transition scenarios?
• What are the trade-offs of developing highly detailed demand assessments for energy system scenarios?
• What levels of cross-sectoral coordination are you implementing for LTES?
• What are the institutional challenges to maintain and update the assessment of these aspects effectively in LTES? (Data collection, political changes, capacities, etc.)
• What approaches are you considering to effectively communicate insights from demand-side scenarios to decision-makers and stakeholders in different sectors?

Scene Setting Presentation 1 (15 min): James Glynn, Senior Research Scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University

Scene Setting Presentation 2 (15 min): Nicole van den Berg, PhD Candidate, Utrecht University and Visiting Researcher, PBL Netherlands

Panel discussion (60 min): Thomas Krutzler, Expert, Energy & Emissions Projections, Austria Environment Agency; Kaare Sandholt, Chief International Expert, China Energy Transformation Programme, Energy Research Institute of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research; Víctor Bazán, Senior Support Officer, Executive Planning Secretariat, Sub-sector Energy, Costa Rica

Interventions from country delegates and the floor audience (20 min)

Coffee break

Session 3: Long-Term Energy Scenarios as an explorative tool for policymaking

Moderator: Paul Deane, Senior Research Fellow, University College Cork

Long-term energy scenarios provide tools for policymakers to make well-informed decisions around developing energy systems. Country planning documents typically build on multiple LTES to analyse different pathways for the energy transition.

The session aimed to discuss approaches for using multiple LTES to inform the policy making processes. What are the pros and cons of having “many” scenarios and how are countries finding the right balance?

The specific guiding questions for this session include:

• How many scenarios does your country produce and what are the uses for them? What are the benefits of producing such number of scenarios?
• What is the role of universities or research institutions in this process?
• How do you translate the scenario results to policy messages?
• How is the country maintaining institutional memory for LTES development and use?
• What are the main policy/strategy documents you have produced using energy scenarios?
• What are the main challenges you are facing now in terms of governance and capacities to keep improving the LTES?

Country presentations (50 min): Adonay Urrutia, Energy Planning Director, National Council of Energy, El Salvador; Thiago Barral, Executive President, Energy Research Office, Brazil; Bradley Little, Senior Policy Advisor, Natural Resources Canada; Karsten Hedegaard, Chief Advisor, Centre for Systems Analysis, Danish Energy Agency

Panel discussion (30 min)

Interventions from country delegates and the floor audience (30 min)

Welcome reception

Registration and morning coffee

Introduction to the second day

• Angela Khanali Mutsotso, Associate Professional, IRENA

Session 4: Role of 100% renewable electricity for the energy system transition in scenarios

Moderator: Jill Engel-Cox, Director Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA), U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Electrification of end-use sectors, backed up by renewable-based power systems, is the key feature of the energy transition. Sector coupling allows the energy system more flexible. How can countries assess 100% renewable electricity system in their national LTES? The scientific community has been incorporated various aspects linked to the 100% RE power system in LTES on different scales, from the local to the global.

This session aimed to explore methodological practices, blind spots, content considerations, and challenges for incorporating 100% renewable power in energy scenarios for the energy transition, from governmental representatives’ perspectives. To this end, the session shared the experiences of 4 countries focusing on the previous aspects. The discussion included country representatives, researchers, and technical experts from the floor.

The specific guiding questions for this session include:

• How far should one push for a 100% renewable energy system? To which extent should one consider other decarbonisation options as carbon dioxide removal or also carbon capture and storage linked to industrial process emissions or fossil fuel use?
• The relationship between energy efficiency and 100% renewable energy supply is interesting to explore more – what is the balance between efforts for energy efficiency and efforts to promote renewable energy supply?
• A 100% renewable power or energy system will be much less dependent on fossil fuels. At the same time, clean energy technologies require critical minerals and other materials to produce them. How can supply chains for materials and technologies be better considered in energy system models and scenarios?
• How to build synergies between centralised actors and decentralised prosumers?
• How to ensure the best resource allocation across geographies?
• What are the main constraints (technological, financial, social, environmental) for countries to formulate these types of scenarios?

Scene Setting Presentation 1 (20 min): Christian Breyer, Professor for Solar Economy, LUT University

Scene Setting Presentation 2 (20 min): Hans-Christian Gils, Head of the Energy Systems Modelling Group, German Aerospace Center (DLR)

Panel discussion (including the scene setters) (45 min): Kaare Sandholt, Chief International Expert, China Energy Transformation Programme, Energy Research Institute of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research; Víctor Bazán, Senior Support Officer, Executive Planning Secretariat, Sub-sector Energy, Costa Rica; Christoph Wolter, Advisor, Centre for Systems Analysis, Danish Energy Agency; Alex Santander, Head of Energy and Environmental Policy and Studies Division, Ministry of Energy, Chile

Interventions from country delegates and the floor audience (25 min)

Lunch

Session 5: Incorporating global hydrogen insights for national LTES narratives

Moderator: Francisco Boshell, Head, Innovation and End-Use Applications, IITC, IRENA

Green hydrogen has emerged as one of the key elements of the energy transition. Consequently, it is progressively being incorporated as a critical feature of LTES narratives by governments, whether envisioned for domestic consumption or as an export commodity. Around fifty countries in the world have either developed or been developing a national hydrogen strategy.

This session aimed to discuss the key drivers for global hydrogen market development, and how these need to be taken into account in national LTES. To this end, the session shared the global outlooks of hydrogen from technical experts and showcased the experiences of linking hydrogen development strategies with LTES narratives from 2 leading countries.

Some guiding questions for this session include:

• How can the use of LTES support the formulation of policies and strategies for hydrogen development and infrastructure investment?
• What are the benefits of using national hydrogen strategies in the development of LTES?
• What are the key considerations/assumptions to develop different LTES for hydrogen?
• What are the key constraints for developing hydrogen scenarios?

Scene Setting Presentation 1 (10 min): Benjamin Gibson, Programme Officer, Planning and Programme Support, IRENA

Scene Setting Presentation 2 (10 min): Amalia Pizarro, Energy Innovation Officer, Hydrogen and Alternative Fuels Unit, International Energy Agency (IEA)

Scene Setting Presentation 3 (10 min): Mario Ragwitz, Director, Fraunhofer IEG

Country presentations (15 minutes): Miriam Bueno Lorenzo, Deputy Director General for Energy Foresight, Strategy and Regulation, Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, Spain; Alex Santander, Head of Energy and Environmental Policy and Studies Division, Ministry of Energy, Chile

Panel discussion (30 min)

Interventions from country delegates and the floor audience (30 min)

Coffee break

Session 6: Geopolitical impacts on the development and assessment of LTES

Moderator: Roland Roesch, Acting Director, IITC, IRENA

The geopolitics of energy, specifically energy security and affordability had been overlooked for the last 15 years. The recent fossil fuel price crisis, which is set to continue for at least another 2-3 years, remind us that LTES must consider the impacts of geopolitics on these factors. This is challenging because the negative impacts are more wide ranging than simply the energy sector. How to account for the costs of rampant inflation form energy prices? How to incorporate the economic losses from recession induced by energy price shocks, and what are their long-term impacts on the energy transition?

For LTES planners, how can we adequately evaluate these factors for the deployment of the renewables over fossil fuels and what implications does it have for the speed of the energy transition?

It is expected that the energy transition will reshape the future energy geopolitics, however, in the process of this transition, the energy systems around the world are still being impacted by disruptions, price shocks, and other crises that have immediate and extended effects on costs, cooperation, import and export, phaseout plans, and stranded assets. Long-Term Energy Scenarios can attempt to reflect geopolitical dynamics – such as resource dependency, conflict, trade, and supply chain constraints – to better-inform policy and investment decisions.

This session aimed to explore how the impacts of the global geopolitical landscape create constraints and changes in the narratives of LTES, and to provide energy planners with insights and technical approaches to improve the representation of geopolitical elements in scenarios.

The specific guiding questions for this session include:

• What are the key geopolitical drivers that must be accounted for while formulating LTES for the energy transition?
• Are the effects of disruptions and shocks relevant for long-term (>2040) energy transition planning?
• How can LTES support governments to find a balance between zero-carbon technologies, energy security policies, and affordable energy prices in the context of fossil fuel-based geopolitics?
• What are the challenges of the energy transition in the current geopolitical context?

Scene Setting Presentation 1 (15 min): Uwe Remme, Head of Hydrogen and Alternative Fuels Unit, International Energy Agency (IEA)

Scene Setting Presentation 2 (15 min): Marius Oosthuizen, Director Scenarios, World Energy Council

Scene Setting Presentation 3 (15 min): Angela Picciariello, Senior Researcher, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)

Panelists: Ardian Islami, Director, Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy, Albania; George Partasides, Coordinator of Energy Affairs, Permanent Secretary Office, Ministry of Energy, Commerce and Industry, Cyprus; Jill Engel-Cox, Senior Research Advisor, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis

Panel discussion (30 min)

Interventions from country delegates and the floor audience (30 min)

Dinner (Café im Kunstmuseum)

Quarterly LTES members and partners meeting [closed meeting]

The agenda was shared before the meeting.

Registration for the workshop and morning coffee

Workshop part 1: Participatory processes for developing national long-term energy scenarios

Moderator: James Glynn, Senior Research Scholar, CGEP, Columbia University

This session aimed to exchange knowledge on best practices and recent experiences in stakeholder engagement processes on long-term energy scenario development and gather perspectives from different stakeholders on important features and challenges of ensuring a participatory and inclusive scenario development process.

Introductory presentation (5 min): Asami Miketa, Senior Programme Officer, Power Sector Investment Planning, IRENA

Scene-setting presentations (20 min): James Glynn, Senior Research Scholar, Columbia University; Reshma Francy, Senior Manager, Scenarios Program, World Energy Council

Group discussion session on participatory processes (75 min) – in a world café format

Discussion (20 min)

Workshop part 2: Country and expert cases on stakeholder consultations

Countries will present their experience in implementing participatory and consultation processes for developing LTES.

Country presentations (45 min): Koen Meeus, Climate Policy Advisor, Federal Climate Change Department, Belgium; Bradley Little, Senior Policy Advisor, Natural Resources Canada; Tiina Koljonen, Research Team Leader, VTT Finland Ltd.; Alex Santander, Head of Energy and Environmental Policy and Studies Division, Ministry of Energy, Chile

Intervention from country delegates and floor audience (45 minutes)

Closing Remarks