Long-term Energy Scenarios (LTES) Initiative
Overview
The Long-term Energy Scenarios (LTES) for the Clean Energy Transition Initiative promotes the wider and more effective use of model-based long-term energy scenarios to guide national energy and climate policy-making.
Launched at the Ninth Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM9) in Copenhagen in May 2018 — originally as the LTES Campaign, and upgraded to a standing Initiative in 2021 — it is coordinated by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and co-led by the Governments of Denmark and Germany.
The Initiative is a global platform that brings together the two communities that matter most for scenario quality and uptake:
- Scenario users — government planning teams and policy-making institutions.
- Scenario developers — government modelling teams and the technical institutions that support them.
The Initiative concentrates on the institutional dimensions of scenario practice, across three areas:
- Strengthening scenario development — improving the methods, data and modelling capability behind official scenarios.
- Improving scenario use — making scenarios usable and used in real policy and investment decisions.
- Increasing institutional ownership — embedding scenario capability durably inside government.
Activities
Annual International Forum on LTES — the flagship event. The 6th International Forum on Long-term Energy Scenarios for the Clean Energy Transition was held at IRENA’s Innovation and Technology Centre in Bonn, Germany, on 29–30 October 2025, gathering scenario practitioners from government, academia, technical institutions, international organisations and the private sector. The programme was built around the thematic areas set out in the Initiative’s May 2025 – April 2026 Workplan, including institutional coordination and NDC alignment, investment mobilisation, scenario tools and communication, stakeholder engagement, and emerging demand-side pressures such as digitalisation and AI. The 5th International Forum was held in Bonn on 9–11 September 2024.
Regional dialogues and capacity building. The Initiative has run dedicated regional webinar series and workshops for Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, each producing a synthesis of regional experience and good practice (see Resources).
Engagement across the CEM and beyond. LTES has featured at successive Clean Energy Ministerials, IRENA Assemblies, COP sessions and CEM Senior Officials’ Meetings, connecting scenario practice to ministerial-level policy discussion.
Community
Coordinator
Partners
China National Renewable Energy Centre (CNREC)
China’s State Grid Energy Research Institute (SGERI)
European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)
International Energy Agency (IEA)
IEA Energy Technology Systems Assistance Programme (IEA-ETSAP)
US Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
World Energy Council (WEC)
Resources
Resources
2026 Thought Leadership Report onStrategic Electrification
October 2026
Resources
Participatory Processes for Strategic Energy Planning
September 2025
Resources
Governments and International Think-Tanks on Features of Net-Zero Scenarios
July 2021
Resources
Webinar: Scenarios for the Energy Transition
December 2020
Resources
Long-term Energy Scenarios Campaign Fact Sheet 2019
June 2019
News and Events
No news or events are linked to this workstream just yet. Check back soon!
Formal membership in the LTES Initiative is free of charge and open to government institutions responsible for developing official scenarios, as well as to technical institutions that support governments in developing and using them.
For further information, or to express interest in joining, contact ltes@irena.org.